Summer 2024 Update
Paragliding incidents and more
Friend,
The nights are drawing in. Ghastly. We’re already comfortably more than halfway through the year, and I’m overdue for producing the bi-annual business and life update that none of you have been craving.
So, in no particular order:
Elections
We had one. It didn’t go well for Rishi “Fast-Track” Sunak. It went very well for Keir “Charisma” Starmer, who’s wittering on about a £22BN black hole in the finances that nobody knew about. Strange, given that all potential incumbent governments are given a detailed breakdown of the nation’s finances before taking office.
Anyway, we’re going to have a Budget in October. Spoiler: it won’t contain tax cuts. If, when it happens, there are horrors that directly affect your financial plan, we will be in touch. Until then, nada: we don’t change financial plans until circumstances change; the best-laid plans of mice and (wo)men are destroyed by acting on guesswork1.
In my eternal search for things to be grateful for, let’s rejoice that our election was over mercifully quickly; in the US, there is also an election looming (news to you, I’m sure). I can only imagine the forthcoming agonies in terms of media coverage and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Oh well! If you can, ignore the news and bury the TV remote. Go for a walk. Take up a hobby. But keep the Screen of Death turned off.
August Market Meltdown (didn’t happen)
The Dying Legacy Media (DLM) - always desperate for the next bad news story and resultant clicks - had a proper bedwetting at the start of August in reaction to average market volatility.
As I sit typing away in the bunker, naked, greased up and strapped in, all the above markets are near-back to where they were before recent travails, including Japan’s. No doubt you’ve heard about this remarkable recovery. Mmmm.
What to glean from this? Nothing, except brace yourself when we get a proper, sustained market correction: based on the DLM’s reaction to August’s non-event, it will go thermonuclear when a significant, unpleasant, but always temporary decline comes along.
And it’s overdue. The last tough, lengthy bear market was the 2007-2009 Credit Crunch. This was before the omnipresent smartphone had taken hold of our eyeballs, before TikTok and all the other revolting nonsense. Wait until “social media” has a real bear to get your phone buzzing every five seconds.
My adviser friends and I discuss the strange events of early August (and more) in episode 51 of the now-genuinely-award-winning TRAP (The Real Adviser Podcast). You can listen to us or watch us. Do both, ideally, because we’re as hungry for clicks as all the other hustlers. The show is aimed at an adviser audience, but we have a vocal and passionate sub-set of civvy street weirdos fans.
Values to Vision Practice Update
The business year ended in June, and it was our best year in terms of turnover. Most of us have things we regret doing, and I’ve probably got more than most. But setting up on my own in September 2008, having been an adviser since 2001, is not one of them.
It’s been a wonderful ride so far. I can’t adequately express my gratitude to the clients/friends who have been on it with me, whether over the past 16 years, the last 16 months, or the last 16 weeks. You and your financial health are my consuming business, and it is my business to do well for you in the only terms that matter: ensuring your life goals are perfectly aligned with your finances.
Are clouds on the horizon? Not really. AI might change things on the fringes, but the intersection of money and meaning is a people business, and the last time I checked, you and I are people. Ongoing regulatory pressures show no sign of diminishing and are a time and mental burden. Most of it is utterly pointless, box-ticking, and soul-destroying. It is the price I pay to do the thing I love.
I am often asked about my long-term plans for the business. Suffice it to say, I have no plans to “retire” in the traditional sense. As expected, The Lovely Penelope (TLP) and I have a financial plan. We can leave work in the next few years without reasonable fear of running out of money later on.
TLP may do this—she’s the headteacher at a “shiny outstanding” school, and it’s rewarding but draining; constantly contending with endless needy voices throughout the academic year takes its toll. And as for the children….
Me? I’m going nowhere. Work is more than money: I enjoy it; it gives some meaning and structure to my time and helps quiet the voices. I’ll do this thing until I no longer want to. I can’t see myself putting my feet up in the next decade. And that’s all I can say.
Holidays
TLP and I have been on various excursions in 2024: Budapest, Limerick, La Herradura, Granada, and, most recently, La Rivière-Enverse, in south-eastern France, visiting mon frère and his wife. We went by train with a change in Paris2.
It’s a stunning part of the world. Italy, Switzerland, and Chamonix are nearby. A place full of potential Alpine pursuits, including paragliding. As the image above indicates, my first attempt involved an early combo-platter of gravity and land. However, I knuckled down and buckled up, and soon I was soaring over the valley. Superb.
I also had a bit of a crash landing, but that’s another story. Suffice it to say: long walks aside, Alpine endeavours are not for me. I went skiing once about 35 years ago and still sometimes wake up screaming incoherently from a nightmare involving a tangled contretemps with a ski lift.
I hope you and yours had (yep, past tense) a pleasant summer. Speak in October.
Although you may ponder what to do now if you have portfolios laden with capital gains: Capital Gains Tax (CGT) will not be going down in the budget, that’s for sure. NOT ADVICE etc.
Top travel tip: if you have hefty luggage, do not use the Metro to get across Paris. Also, avoid Uber. Just get a taxi from the rank at Gare du Nord. You’ll thank me.